Niger Republic; an avoidable quagmire.

The recent coup in Niger republic is threatening to be the last straw that may break the camel's back in view of the delicate situation in the sahelian belt of Africa. The coup, which has been executed successfully is facing stiff resistance externally especially from the United States, France and Nigeria whilst also enjoying a modicum of support internally and also externally from ideologically/culturally and neighboring states. 

Niger lies near the center of Africa’s Sahel region, a narrow band of semi-arid land where the savanna transitions to the Sahara Desert. Like most Sahel countries, Niger’s population is concentrated in the more fertile south of the sahel, with vast expanses of largely uninhabited desert constituting the majority of the country, though some population centres thrive in the north due to mining activities.

Mohamed Bazoum, the former President of Niger republic was ousted in a military coup on the 26th of July and was promptly replaced by a junta led by General Abdourahamane Tiani. Bazoum, who is aligned strongly with the US and French led block is seen as too enthralled to western dictates and accused of corruption by the junta who seek to align with Russia and China and wean the poor west African nation off French dependency and exert a semblance of sovereignty in her many foreign, domestic and economic policies.

The coupists seem to be exploiting historically accumulated grievances of not only Niger, but of Francophone Africa's frustration and anger at 'French subjugation and enslavement'.

Nigeria, being a beacon of democracy has rushed to condemn the action of the coupists urging them to revert to status quo with a double track approach of diplomacy and also military threat, trade sanctions and a No-fly-zone has already been put to put pressure on the junta. Nigeria is seeking to replicate her success in restoring democracy in Gambia, a tiny west African nation.

However, this is all where the similarities end, whilst Gambia could be considered a success in cost benefit analysis consideration, Gambia lacked the leverage of demography, geography, centrality and strategic depth that Niger enjoys making her indispensable in the regions Multi-national effort to defeat Boko Haram, Human and drug trafficking, Niger is also a critical conduit to reach other landlocked sahelian African countries in terms of trade and logistics making any destabilization of the country with such significant demography of Twenty five million people disastrous for the region.

With the Junta seeking Russian assistance, the region is tethering on the brink of being another flashpoint in global geopolitical tussle, the Russian PMC coy Wagner which has a strong footprint in the Sahel, from Mali, Burkina Faso, Libya, Chad and Central African republic with the first four all bordering Niger, any military intervention is capable of splitting the region into Pro and Anti western camps, resulting in a protracted conflict with spillover of refugees into Nigeria and Europe exacerbating already the fragile regional stability.

Niger is dotted by US and French military and drone bases with far reaching intelligence capabilities that no other ECOWAS nation can rival, thus the ease at which the coup succeeded is suspicious to many who are asking how could it be? and the fact that ECOWAS has de facto accepted the coups in Burkina Faso, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Mali, and Chad, means that precedents have been set.

Nigeria should explore economic and diplomatic means of settling this situation only resorting to military means when her core interests and national security are threatened. The Anti-French sentiments in the sahel is widespread and Nigeria should not be seen as a western pawn by fellow francophone Africans.

A delegation led by the former President, Muhammadu Buhari (GCFR) who has significant credibility with the population of Niger should be explored to peacefully settle this delicate situation.

Nigeria and by extension, ECOWAS must resist being plunged into a quagmire capable of unraveling the sub region and reducing her militaries to a proxy force ala Ukraine's to serve the interests of foreign powers. Nigeria must approach this scenario with all the wisdom and foresight she can muster and eschew any approach that could be counterproductive.

On one hand, there's the risk of interfering in a sovereign country's internal affairs. On the other hand, there are the implications of attempting to reverse a coup that has already been approved by a country's military forces and seem to enjoy significant domestic support. Most importantly, the next action by Nigeria/ECOWAS will set the premise for other coup-prone countries within the region. It needs to be tactful and effective without recourse to primarily military means, history has shown that getting into foreign invasions is easy, but extracting your forces can become a quagmire that can lead to far reaching consequences as the Americans experienced in Vietnam or the USSR in Afghanistan.

Nigeria's policy must be primarily guided by her interests and not ideologically or bloc driven which leave little to no room for strategic creativity and maneuver.

I'll end with a quote from the third US President, Thomas Jefferson who said;

'"Peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations, entangling alliances with none."